The Beef Brief: Cattle Prices, Imports, and the Supply Shock Ahead

The cattle market has been hit from every direction.
Border policy. Imports. Plant closures. Record weights. Changing consumer demand.
And that’s just the start.
As Dustin Schaaf, our head cattle buyer, put it: there isn’t one or two things driving the market right now.
Every day, something new moves it.
The bigger concern is the supply building in front of us.
Cattle on feed is running around 102%, packing capacity has been reduced, and carcass weights are dramatically higher than they were just a few years ago.
That creates more beef — even without a major increase in head count.
At the same time, imports are up and exports are down.
The pressure is showing up first in grinds and end cuts. Middle meats may hold better with the holidays ahead, but the market will be watching closely to see whether the cutout can hold around $3.50.
The next major question is demand:
Can consumers absorb more beef at these prices?
And on the feeder side, the leverage is beginning to shift. Feed yards facing negative margins won’t be eager to keep bidding aggressively, which could create another round of pressure on feeder calf prices.
There may eventually be an opportunity to buy cattle at more workable values.
But prices this high come with real risk.
Manage it.
LRP. Live cattle contracts. Puts or calls. Whatever fits your operation — have a plan before the market makes one for you.
The market may be volatile, but the fundamentals are becoming clearer: supply, processing capacity, imports, exports, and consumer demand are all competing for influence.
And right now, nobody gets to ignore the risk.
Listen to the full conversation: https://youtu.be/Ud973Cr5Q0E
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